Estimation of the Incubation Period and the Serial Interval of COVID-19 in Chongqing, China

  • Xinyan Lai Chongqing Medical University
  • Qin Li Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Qing Zeng Chongqing Medical University
  • Weng Tang Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Han Zhao Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Bosong Li Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18686/aem.v11i1.220
Keywords: COVID-19, Incubation Period, Serial Interval, Chongqing, Coronavirus

Abstract

In December 2019, the initial case of COVID-19's disease appeared in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. But it soon caused an outbreak in Chongqing as well. Reasonable estimates for the incubation period distribution and the serial interval distribution would provide timely information to guide intervention policy for the government of Chongqing. We collect individual information from Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention(CQCDC). We use doubly interval-censored data to estimate the incubation period and the serial interval for confirmed cases exposed to COVID-19 during incubation period,the mean incubation period is estimated to be 7.5(6.6-8.6,95% CI) days and the mean serial interval is estimated to be 6.1 (5.0-7.5,95% CI) days. The analysis result show that COVID-19 could spread in the incubation period,which may complicate quarantine work. The implementation of control measures is indispensable in reducing the spread of asymptomatic incubation period in high-risk population.

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Published
2022-03-29
Issue
Vol 11 No 1 (2022)
Section
Original Research Article

Copyright (c) 2022 Xinyan Lai

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